Billy’s Baby Bulls
What can the Donovan Thunder teams tell us about Bulls’ draft outlook?
Billy Donovan is not an elite coach.
He’s not a bad coach—those guys generally don’t make the playoffs with the regularity Donovan did—but he certainly is not a domineering mind in his field and his tactics have yet to truly impress in a postseason environment. Still, there are bits and pieces that we can take from his more successful years that could hint at the players in the 2020 NBA Draft most suited to his style. Every player listed here (besides maybe the last one) could be an instant contributor on a young, playoff-hungry roster and the Donovan hire would seem to indicate that’s how the Bulls view themselves.
Hayes is perhaps the most Chris Paul player (offensive comparison only) in the draft, but he stands at 6'5 rather than an optimistic 6'0. That would seem an easy nod for the number one pick, but Hayes isn’t flashing the prime Hornets CP3, the player that could have won an MVP while acting as the powertrain for a roster without much else. Rather, he resembles veteran Thunder CP3: a patient, crafty guard with the nous to manipulate pick-and-roll settings easily, the confidence and ability to pull up for shots off the dribble, and the steadiness at the free-throw line to project further growth. The P&R is a fundamental weapon in any coach’s arsenal (not named Jim Boylen) and Donovan is no different. Hayes’ incredible passing opens up the floor for all players in this setting, and his left-handedness puts defenders at a mental disadvantage by flipping the script on every move they’re expecting.
Hayes, like many other players in this Euro-heavy draft, spent last year honing his craft against grown men. His physical adaptations have been astounding, going from a player who, just two years ago, appeared to be stuck in molasses to one who can regularly break down his matchup off the bounce or slide with assignments through two or three moves. He likely won’t win games off the strength of his defense but Hayes is smart enough, big enough, and smooth enough to keep a team defense intact on big minutes. The Bulls lack a guard who is both convincing on defense and actionably intelligent on offense; Killian Hayes would be the answer to that vacuum.
It should be said that Donovan also ran three-guard lineups to a drastic, D’Antoni-esque extent last season, as Chris Paul/Shai Gilgeous-Alexander/Dennis Schröder lineups eclipsed 400 minutes played with a stellar net rating of +28.6.
It’s hard to know whether Vassell is a “Donovan” player or just a typical Presti pick that Donovan was stuck with: the classic rangy, defensive wing (see: Ferguson, Roberson, Kevin Hervey, Hamidou Diallo, Luguentz Dort, etc.) Either way, Donovan’s schemes have leaned on lengthy wings in the past to anchor what has historically been a very stout defensive unit. Vassell fits in perfectly with the Bulls roster, one that sorely lacks any semblance of wing depth, as well as sound guard defenders.
Vassell’s defensive numbers were frankly astounding at Florida State, though some of the credit has to go to Leonard Hamilton allowing Vassell to freelance a la Thybulle. Aggressive digs as the nail player in FSU’s hyperactive defense, bold lunges into passing lanes, and fearless hands make Vassell a nightmare for team offenses. He’s a born disruptor. Donovan’s aggressive schemes prior to this year have made use of those skills, as players shut down pick-and-rolls with length as help defenders to ease the pressure on slower bigs like Adams. Even this year, Chris Paul’s ability and willingness to stick on opposing scorers allowed Donovan to run a safe drop coverage without being hellaciously burned by pull-ups.
Vassell’s offense deserves more than a footnote but it’s all he’s getting today; he’s an extremely capable jump shooter with an underrated off-the-dribble game. His outside shooting will be of tremendous value to the Bulls, who lack any shooting wings outside of the disgruntled Denzel Valentine and damaged Otto Porter.
Isaac Okoro
This doesn’t require much explanation with the Vassell bit out of the way, but Okoro fills a slightly different defensive role than the Seminole wing and a vastly different role on offense. Okoro is built like a boulder, with shoulders so wide they almost make him look shorter on film. Bodies simply aren’t built like that, and if they are, they play in the NFL. Billed as a 1–5 defender, Okoro’s reputation outpaces his real ability, but only slightly. His aforementioned strength is coupled with +lateral agility, smart contests, and solid feel, making him a real bet for the best on-ball defender in the class. What Vassell is to opposing team offense, so Okoro is to individual offense. He just totally tanks actions by players of nearly any size or speed. He’s a Jerami Grant-style player who trades the high-flying weakside blocks for titanium core strength, and his instincts when jailing opposing ball handlers are perfect for a classic Donovan scheme. Think of him as a Super Saiyan’d 2007 Corey Brewer—Donovan would love him.
On offense, he doesn’t bring even an ounce of Vassell’s (or even Brewer’s) shooting ability but he does bring a dimension of passing that makes him offensively faceted. The Bulls notably lack creative players at the forward positions (verdict on Wendell still pending) and allowing Okoro to function as a secondary handler would give some real credibility to a multi-handler system, should the Bulls attempt to stick with it. Okoro’s handle limits how effectively he can leverage that passing, but there are hints and flashes of +vision that could really flourish if properly coaxed by Chicago’s coaching staff. Having a multitude of competent ball handlers at different would be a great way to keep defenses from keying in on any one of the Bulls’ admittedly average initiators on the roster. Getting Okoro downhill in a 4/5 P&R with Wendell Carter Jr. as shooters like LaVine, Markkanen, and Porter line the wings would be a tough look to throw at teams, but it would require some significant dribbling development from the Auburn product.
The worry with drafting Okoro is where he fits on the roster. Pair him in the frontcourt with Wendell and the spacing sinks like the Titanic. Pair him with Lauri and you lose Carter’s valuable rim presence. Play him with both and Okoro finds himself matched up against guards a little more than is ideal. Taking Okoro necessitates a roster shuffle in a way that the other two players here don’t.
An Unlikely Pick:
Is “Poku” a perfect analog to any single Thunder player? No. Have dozens of unqualified skinny forwards been compared to Kevin Durant through the years, only to disappoint as they lack the incredible poise/athleticism/control that Durant did? Yes. Am I still gonna compare Poku to one of modern basketball’s greatest scorers? Also yes. Poku is many things: a sublime handler for his size, an instinctual defender with the length to capitalize, and a confident (perhaps too much so) shooter on and off-balance. Those are all KD traits. The caveats? He’s even skinnier than Texas KD. He’s spent his most significant pro minutes playing in the Greek second league. He might have attitude problems.
So what’s to separate Poku from Jan Vesely, Dragan Bender, and Darko? It’s not just in the flashes or the measurements, but how often he pops on screen for leveraging the instincts, tools, and skills with which he’s gifted. Poku wasn’t just present in HEBA A2 (Greek basketball’s second tier); he absolutely lorded over it in a way that even Giannis Antetokounmpo, the league’s most notable alum, failed to do. That overwhelming statistical success has built Poku’s brimming confidence to a boil, and the consequence is that he tries passes and shots that most players would never imagine taking during a real game — off-balance runners and no-look behind-the-back lobs in the halfcourt. Most aren’t successful, but frankly, they don’t need to be. He’s Dude Perfect in a world of dullards. There’s so much boundless creativity in the way he sees the floor that it’s hard to believe he’ll fail if given the right surroundings.
The weight and athleticism concerns for Pokusevski are legitimate, as he’ll probably need to guard slighter wings rather than big men. Slotting in at power forward with Carter Jr. at the center spot and adding a defensively stout small forward (even a healthy Otto Porter Jr. will do) should allow Poku to freelance in space on defense, minimizing the size drawbacks.
Parting Thoughts
Of course, there are other players that fit. No coach worth their salt is only able to work with 4 specific draft prospects. However, for this Bulls roster to take a step forward under Donovan, it might behoove management to take his needs into consideration. Doing so makes it easy for Donovan to succeed and for the players under his tutelage to develop fully. I also realize this is not the most in-depth breakdown of these players; for more information, I strongly recommend checking out @Prep2ProPod @abovethebreak3 and @Cosmis on Twitter. They are by far some of most educated draft minds online and their understanding of the above players dwarfs mine in every respect.
